Paste completed-trade R results and break “I feel the strategy works” into verifiable win rate, average win/loss, expectancy, losing streaks and drawdowns. Data stays only in the current browser.
Record first, then explain.Do not use one successful trade to represent a strategy
Completed trades
Paste completed-trade results
Define a single consistent 1R sizing convention first; do not mix open trades, different strategies or different cost bases.
Paste at least 5 completed trades and confirm all trades use the same R definition.
Core formula:Expected value = win rate × average gain + loss rate × average loss; Profit Factor = total gains ÷ absolute total losses; R drawdown is calculated from the running peak of the cumulative R curve.
Journal statistics
Trading statistics
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Awaiting valid input
Number of trades—
Win rate—
Average profit—
Average loss—
Profit Factor—
Maximum consecutive losses—
Maximum R drawdown—
cumulative R—
Distribution decomposition
Item
Count / value
Interpretation
Not yet calculated
cumulative R path
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Earlier tradesLatest trade
Model limitations:This page only analyzes the completed R results you paste in; it does not know each trade’s price, slippage, fees, time, strategy tags or liquidity. Small samples, mixed strategies, survivorship bias and excluded open trades can distort statistics; historical positive expectancy does not guarantee future results.
Next check
Feed statistics back into the trading process.
Cost sensitivity
Use a single‑trade tool to check how fees and slippage change expected value.
This page turns a finance concept into checkable inputs, formulas, and scenarios. Read the variable definitions first, then compare conservative, base, and stress cases; one result is not a promise of return.
Suggested workflow: confirm units and time periods, enter your own assumptions, then review sensitivity, costs, and downside cases.
Limitations: the model does not forecast markets and may not include every tax, slippage, liquidity, credit, regulatory, or contract term. Verify important decisions with current primary information and a qualified professional.
Financial risk disclaimer
This page, its calculators, and examples are for education, research, and scenario estimation only. They are not personalized investment, trading, betting, tax, legal, or financial advice. Markets and local rules can change quickly; verify current primary information and take responsibility for your decisions. Past performance, model outputs, and simulations do not guarantee future results.