1. Before research: write five sentences
- What do I believe will happen, and over what time horizon?
- Which three pieces of evidence most strongly support or refute this assumption?
- Which operational drivers create value?
- Which good news is already priced into the market?
- Under what circumstances will I admit I'm wrong?
2. Layer uncertainty
Observable risks include financial leverage, competition, regulation and liquidity; unavoidable uncertainties include macro cycles and valuation volatility. Don’t pretend you can eliminate the latter — manage it with diversification, position sizing and liquidity controls.
3. Buying is not the end of the process
Establish holding‑period tracking metrics and review cadence. When prices move but core assumptions remain unchanged, do not react solely on emotion; when core drivers fail, do not hold only because of sunk costs.
Decision quality = clarity of assumptions × quality of evidence × risk discipline
You can think ofDCF scenarios、Position size與portfolio allocationResults are recorded on the same checklist.