Trading expectancy calculator

Convert the planned R:R into net outcomes after fees and slippage. Recompute instantly when inputs change; all numbers remain in the current browser and are not uploaded or auto‑filled with market data.

3R ≠ guaranteeCosts will reduce profits and amplify losses

Model inputs

Set trading scenario

Trade direction

Win rate (%)Estimate using historical trade records, not subjective promises.

Entry price (Entry)

Stop price Stop

Target price Target

Position QuantityYou may input share counts, contracts or other trading units.

Evaluate number of trades

Trading cost assumptions

Enter fees as percentages; e.g. for 0.10% enter 0.10; slippage is assumed adverse to the trader. Verify actual broker fees, taxes and market rules.

Entry commission (%)

Exit commission (%)

Entry slippage (%)

Exit slippage (%)

Fixed entry fee（元）

Exit fixed fee (元)

Input changes are calculated in real time; currently using 3R, 25% win rate and costs for demonstration.

Core formula:Expected value = win rate × average net gain + loss rate × average net loss. Net results first apply adverse slippage, then subtract round‑trip fees calculated on execution amounts and fixed fees.

Net expectancy

Results after cost adjustments

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Awaiting valid input

Planned R:R—

net profit R—

net loss R—

Expected amount per trade—

Breakeven win rate—

Evaluation period expectations—

Actual entry price—

Cost direction—

Breakdown of single‑trade results

Amount calculated based on position quantity

Scenario	Gross result	Trading costs	net result	Net R
Not yet calculated

visual comparison of net results

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Profit scenarios —Stop scenario —

Research purpose and limitations:This tool only computes a single profit scenario and a single stop‑loss scenario from the inputs; it does not model partial exits, gaps, fill probability, actual P&L distributions, transaction taxes, borrow fees, liquidity impact or future win‑rate changes. Planned R:R is not equal to realized average P&L; results cannot be treated as trading instructions or personalized financial advice.

Read the model

How to interpret negative expected value?

Look at net R first.

3R is the price distance before costs. If slippage and round-trip commissions are included, the net profit of a winning trade may be less than +3R, and the net loss of a stopped trade may exceed −1R.

Recheck the win‑rate threshold

Breakeven win rate＝absolute value of net loss ÷ (net profit + absolute value of net loss). The higher the costs, the higher the threshold typically.

Last in‑sample

Expected value is a probability‑weighted average, not a prediction of the next trade. Use completed trades with a consistent methodology to fill win rate and actual average P&L.