← Read the retirement cash‑flow tutorialInteractive lab · Frontend only · No real‑time quotes
Retirement income · Stress test
Retirement cash‑flow stress test
Place retirement assets, spending, inflation and return assumptions on the same annual table, then compare explicitly specified sequence stresses. The result is a single‑path educational demonstration, not a probability of success, return forecast or withdrawal recommendation.
—
Model not yet executed; inputs and results remain only on this local page.
The model will build annual cash flows and compare three sequences at execution.
Model scope:
Ending assets = max(0, starting assets × (1＋return that year) − withdrawals that year)Fixed rules index withdrawals to inflation; percentage rules compute withdrawals from beginning‑of‑year assets; flexible rules reduce withdrawals only when prior‑year returns fall below a threshold. The model applies annual returns first, then annual withdrawals.Scenario output
Asset runway and stress monitoring
—
Initial withdrawal rate—First‑year withdrawal ÷ assets at retirement
Real return rate—(1＋nominal return) ÷ (1＋inflation) − 1
End‑of‑simulation assets—Nominal amount; single path
liquidity runway—reserve ÷ first month withdrawal
Year of asset depletion—If year‑end balance first falls below 0
Current measurement basis:—
Balance path
Annual asset balance
Cash‑flow ledger
Annual cash flow details
| Yearly | Assets at start of year | Annual return | Withdrawal | Assets at year end |
|---|
Sequence comparison
Three explicit stress pathways
—
| Scenario | Ending assets | Depleted during the simulation period | Purpose |
|---|
Interpretation limits:This is not a Monte Carlo simulation, nor a probability‑of‑success estimate. It does not include taxes, fees, insurance, medical costs, government/pension benefits, account withdrawal limits, exchange rates, asset allocation, actual return distributions or longevity uncertainty; the sample return paths do not represent market behaviour.
Further reading:FINRA Retirement Portfolio · Investor.gov Compound Interest Calculator · Charles Schwab sequence‑of‑returns risk explanation
Further reading:FINRA Retirement Portfolio · Investor.gov Compound Interest Calculator · Charles Schwab sequence‑of‑returns risk explanation