Taiwan index futures / 富台期 pair trading:
Break down the Basis first, then discuss arbitrage.
The difficulty in cross‑market pairing is not finding two similar lines, but aligning contract multipliers, currencies, trading hours, expiries, margin and basis risk. This article provides a verifiable, computable and reproducible research framework.
Read the conclusion first.
- Pairs trading is not "long one, short one = neutral"; differences in leg units, Beta, currency and trading hours leave residual risk.
- Basis is an observed value, not a guaranteed convergence return; the term structure, funding costs and roll frictions will change the outcome.
- Every study should record contract specs, simultaneous quotes, lot conversions, costs and stop/shutdown conditions.
1. First align contract specs and nominal units
1.1 Index futures are not the index itself
An index is a computed reference value; a futures contract has an expiry, trading sessions, settlement method, minimum tick and per‑point multiplier. The 臺灣期貨交易所 official TAIEX Futures specification page lists TX’s English code, expiry schedule, trading hours, contract size, minimum tick, price limits and settlement method — researchers should verify against the current official page rather than treating old specs from web articles as constants.
1.2 Nominal value and number of contracts
Theoretical hedge contracts = Spot exposure market value × Hedge ratio ÷ (futures price × points multiplier)
FuTai futures, TAIEX futures, Mini contracts or overseas futures cannot directly share the same contract multiplier. If the two legs use different currencies, you must first specify the exchange‑rate timing and direction; if trading hours don't overlap, paired closing prices may reflect market states at different times.
2. Basis and term structure: decompose the spread into verifiable components
2.1 Futures-spot basis
Basis% = (F − S) ÷ S
Simplified annualized Basis% = Basis% × 365 ÷ days to maturity
Here F is the near‑month futures and S is the contemporaneous spot or index reference. A positive Basis may reflect holding costs, financing, dividends and supply/demand; a negative Basis is not necessarily a mispricing. Annualization merely scales the current observation to a common horizon, it is not an expected return.
2.2 Term structure and rolling positions
When rolling, observe directional P&L and the replacement cost F2−F1. If you only look at a single continuous futures line and ignore month‑roll rules, long‑term backtests may mistake roll gains for directional returns.
Ready to useFutures‑spot spread toolEnter the point‑in‑time data you verified and save contract specifications and timestamps.
3. Derive hedge sizing from beta and multipliers
3.1 First define the risks to be neutralized
If you hold a basket of Taiwan stocks, the objective may be to reduce market beta rather than eliminate all single‑stock risk; if you hold USD assets there's a currency leg; if you hold cross‑market ETFs different trading hours cause intraday residual risk. Hedge ratio must be written as a research hypothesis before deciding contract counts. ETF
3.2 Theoretical contract size is not the same as directly orderable size
Numbers produced by the formula should be rounded to whole tradable minimum lot sizes, then check tick P&L, margin, price‑limit rules, liquidity and maximum tolerable loss. Preserve the rounding error; do not format results as seemingly precise fractional lots.
| Verification layer | Essential questions | Common misjudgments |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure | Are spot market value, Beta, currency and timestamp consistent? | Calling equal dollar amounts neutral is insufficient. |
| Contract | Are multiplier, minimum tick, expiry and settlement method valid for the current period? | Reuse an old article or another Mini contract |
| Execute | Are both legs executable at the same time, and are costs and slippage included? | Looks only at theoretical spreads, ignores liquidity. |
4. Rolls, basis breakdowns and risk control
4.1 Pairing relationships can change
High correlation is not cointegration and does not guarantee persistence next month. Constituents changes, dividends, FX, interest rates, trading hours and event risk can all change the relationship. Use rolling windows to check correlation, spread distribution and failure conditions, and keep out‑of‑sample periods.
4.2 Margin and gap (jump) risk
Even if two legs are theoretically opposite, margin is managed per leg and exchange rules; if one leg fills first and the other slips or is halted, the account can still face concentrated exposure. Stress tests should include basis widening, adverse FX moves, doubled trading costs and inability to close simultaneously.
4.3 Shutdown rules
Before placing an order, write down maximum allowed Basis deviation, maximum unhedged time, margin buffer and pre‑event reduction rules. Stop management is part of system design, not an emotional decision made after losses.
5. Pair‑research execution checklist
- Do the two legs share the same underlying, currency, timestamp and adjustment convention?
- Have the official contract specifications and per‑tick multipliers been saved?
- Are Basis and Calendar spread calculated separately?
- Has the hedge contract count been checked against Beta and integerization/rounding error?
- Are cost, slippage, margin, and price‑movement limits included?
- Is there monitoring for out‑of‑sample performance and structural changes?
- Are roll rules reproducible?
- Have maximum deviation, time and liquidity shutdown conditions been documented in advance?
Decompose your basis using data from the same timestamps.
Enter verified spot, front‑month and next‑month prices and multipliers; the tool separates spot‑future and roll components.
Official documentation and FAQs
Can the tick value of the Taiwan index futures be permanently fixed?
No. Should be based onTAIFEX current contract specificationsReview and watch exchange notices, contract adjustments and broker risk controls.
Does a positive basis equal an arbitrage opportunity?
No. You must simultaneously consider financing, dividends, securities lending, margin, transaction costs, rolling, time‑of‑day differences and basis risk; the tool only provides a transparent decomposition.
Why review CME’s basic futures materials?
CME introductory futures materialExplain contract specifications, settlement, tick size, notional value, Mark‑to‑Market, margin and hedger separately as a cross‑market concept index; actual specs remain subject to each exchange.